Data
What insurers filed for 2027
A median 15% increase across 276 filings, on top of a year that already saw benchmark premiums rise 26%. These are proposals, not approvals, and the difference matters.
Two years, one third
2026 was the steep one. Benchmark premiums rose 26% and the median approved rate change was 20%. 2027 adds another median 15% on top. Taken together, typical marketplace premiums would rise by more than a third between 2025 and 2027.
KFF describes the 2027 filings as the second-highest requested rate change since 2018. The highest was last year.
The three forces
Medical trend, running hot
The largest single driver, at a median of 10%. Hospital and physician costs, provider contract and wage inflation, consolidation that reduces the pressure on prices, coding intensity, and specialty drugs. GLP-1 medications alone moved from roughly $13 to $49 per member per month in some markets, a tripling inside a single category.
A sicker risk pool
When prices rise, healthy people leave first. Insurers filed morbidity adjustments of 4% to 7% for 2027, on the expectation that the people who remain will use more care per head than the people who left. Roughly four percentage points of the 2027 increase is attributable to this, and that is on top of about four points already built into the 2026 rates in anticipation of the same effect.
This is the part that compounds. Higher prices push out healthy enrollees, which makes the pool sicker, which justifies higher prices next year. Actuaries have a name for it.
Policy uncertainty
New eligibility restrictions from the 2025 reconciliation law, dispute resolution costs under the No Surprises Act, and genuine uncertainty about which 2027 marketplace rules will survive litigation. When an insurer cannot predict the rules, it prices in a margin.
The ten largest proposed increases
| State | Proposed 2027 | 2026 benchmark | 2027 projected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | +29.0% | $532 | $686 |
| New Mexico | +25.7% | $623 | $783 |
| Kansas | +24.2% | $670 | $832 |
| Montana | +23.4% | $692 | $854 |
| Alaska | +22.9% | $1,032 | $1,268 |
| Washington | +22.4% | $612 | $749 |
| Mississippi | +21.8% | $662 | $806 |
| Wisconsin | +21.1% | $611 | $740 |
| Georgia | +20.7% | $615 | $742 |
| New York | +20.7% | $817 | $986 |
The ten smallest
| State | Proposed 2027 | 2026 benchmark | 2027 projected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vermont | +6.5% | $1,299 | $1,383 |
| Iowa | +6.7% | $501 | $535 |
| Utah | +6.8% | $640 | $684 |
| Arkansas | +7.6% | $774 | $833 |
| District of Columbia | +9.5% | $610 | $668 |
| California | +9.9% | $570 | $626 |
| Ohio | +10.7% | $513 | $568 |
| South Dakota | +10.9% | $655 | $726 |
| Colorado | +11.0% | $557 | $618 |
| Hawaii | +11.1% | $541 | $601 |
Every state
| State | Proposed 2027 | 2026 benchmark | 2027 projected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | +20.2% | $645 | $775 |
| Alaska | +22.9% | $1,032 | $1,268 |
| Arizona | +29.0% | $532 | $686 |
| Arkansas | +7.6% | $774 | $833 |
| California | +9.9% | $570 | $626 |
| Colorado | +11.0% | $557 | $618 |
| Connecticut | +16.2% | $870 | $1,011 |
| Delaware | +16.9% | $691 | $808 |
| District of Columbia | +9.5% | $610 | $668 |
| Florida | +15.9% | $683 | $792 |
| Georgia | +20.7% | $615 | $742 |
| Hawaii | +11.1% | $541 | $601 |
| Idaho | +13.0% | $490 | $554 |
| Illinois | +14.1% | $646 | $737 |
| Indiana | +19.3% | $474 | $565 |
| Iowa | +6.7% | $501 | $535 |
| Kansas | +24.2% | $670 | $832 |
| Kentucky | +18.7% | $590 | $700 |
| Louisiana | +17.3% | $646 | $758 |
| Maine | +16.8% | $709 | $828 |
| Maryland | +13.7% | $414 | $471 |
| Massachusetts | +12.9% | $494 | $558 |
| Michigan | +14.2% | $523 | $597 |
| Minnesota | +11.9% | $448 | $501 |
| Mississippi | +21.8% | $662 | $806 |
| Missouri | +12.5% | $605 | $681 |
| Montana | +23.4% | $692 | $854 |
| Nebraska | +13.3% | $710 | $804 |
| Nevada | +18.6% | $497 | $589 |
| New Hampshire | +18.4% | $401 | $475 |
| New Jersey | +20.4% | $545 | $656 |
| New Mexico | +25.7% | $623 | $783 |
| New York | +20.7% | $817 | $986 |
| North Carolina | +14.9% | $638 | $733 |
| North Dakota | +19.2% | $570 | $679 |
| Ohio | +10.7% | $513 | $568 |
| Oklahoma | +20.2% | $604 | $726 |
| Oregon | +17.5% | $543 | $638 |
| Pennsylvania | +17.1% | $572 | $670 |
| Rhode Island | +20.1% | $506 | $608 |
| South Carolina | +17.5% | $564 | $663 |
| South Dakota | +10.9% | $655 | $726 |
| Tennessee | +12.7% | $711 | $801 |
| Texas | +13.1% | $661 | $748 |
| Utah | +6.8% | $640 | $684 |
| Vermont | +6.5% | $1,299 | $1,383 |
| Virginia | +19.0% | $455 | $541 |
| Washington | +22.4% | $612 | $749 |
| West Virginia | +18.3% | $1,073 | $1,269 |
| Wisconsin | +21.1% | $611 | $740 |
| Wyoming | +11.3% | $1,090 | $1,213 |
What to do with this
- Do not treat your state’s average as your number. Filings vary widely between insurers inside a state, and benchmark premiums are set county by county.
- If you are subsidised and near the cliff, a large increase in your state raises the stakes of crossing it, because the credit you would lose is larger.
- If you are unsubsidised, shop the whole market rather than renewing. The insurer with the smallest increase this year is often not the one you are with.
- Check the final approved rates when they publish in the autumn, before open enrollment. Read the state-by-state premium map for the underlying price levels.
Common questions
How much are ACA premiums going up in 2027?
Insurers have filed a median increase of 15% across 276 filings covering all 50 states and DC. The range runs from a 1% decrease to a 54% increase, and 63% of insurers filed somewhere between 10% and 25%.
Are these final?
No. These are proposed rates. State insurance regulators review filings through the summer and autumn and frequently reduce them. In 2026 the median proposal was 18% and the median approved figure came in at 20%, so review does not always cut, but the final number is genuinely not known until the autumn.
Why are rates rising this much two years running?
Three forces. Medical trend is running at a median of 10% for 2027, above the historical norm of about 8%, driven by hospital and physician costs, provider consolidation, and specialty drugs. Insurers are adding roughly four percentage points for a sicker risk pool after healthier people left when the enhanced credits expired. And policy uncertainty from new eligibility restrictions and ongoing litigation adds a margin on top.
If I get a subsidy, does a rate increase affect me?
Much less than you would expect. Your contribution is set as a percentage of your income, not as a percentage of the premium, so when the benchmark rises the credit rises with it. Rate increases hit hardest at the top of the eligible range and above the cliff, where there is no credit to absorb them.
Sources
- 1.KFF: Preliminary 2027 rate filings
- 2.Peterson-KFF: How much and why premiums are rising in 2027
- 3.healthinsurance.org: 2027 proposed rates by state
- 4.KFF: What we know about 2026 enrollment, premiums, and deductibles
Marketplace rules change through legislation, rulemaking, and litigation. Confirm anything you are about to act on, or call and ask.
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